India Food Inflation Soars as Onion Prices Jump 116%

India’s retail inflation surged to 6.09% in October, crossing the Reserve Bank of India’s upper limit of 6% for the first time in two years. The sharp rise was driven mainly by food prices, according to official data released on Thursday, 12 November 2026.

Food inflation, which makes up nearly 40% of India’s consumer price index (CPI), jumped to 8.94% in October, up from 7.74% in September. For millions of households, that means the weekly food shop now costs far more than it did a year ago.

Onion prices more than double

Onions saw the steepest rise of any food item. Onion prices rose by 116.22% compared with a year earlier. Garlic became 60.74% costlier, ginger prices rose by 48.32%, and lemons recorded inflation of 47.30%.

The price rise was sharper in rural India, where retail inflation stood at 6.63%. Urban areas recorded an inflation rate of 5.41%. Southern states felt the pressure most: retail inflation in Karnataka reached 7.07%, Tamil Nadu recorded 7.29%, and Andhra Pradesh saw rural inflation of 7.81%.

Restaurant and hotel prices also jumped, with inflation in that group reaching 10.06% — the first double-digit reading in the new price series. Eating out is now clearly more expensive for Indian families.

Why food prices are rising

Economists point to tight supply as the main cause. “The acceleration in food inflation reflects increasingly binding supply-side constraints,” said Dipti Deshpande, principal economist at Crisil.

A weak monsoon has hurt the kharif harvest, while prospects for the winter rabi crop have also weakened, with sowing lagging behind, especially for wheat and gram. Deshpande said food inflation was likely to stay high for the rest of the financial year.

Milk prices are adding to the pressure. Leading dairy brands Amul and Mother Dairy raised milk prices by Rs 2 to 6 per litre in Delhi NCR from Thursday. In Karnataka, the Nandini brand raised milk prices by Rs 8 per litre from the start of the month. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said food inflation would face more upward pressure in November because of high prices of milk, sugar and onions.

What happens next: a likely rate rise

Overall inflation has now stayed above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target for five months in a row. Core inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, rose to 4.75% in October from 4.60% in September.

Analysts now expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates again. The bank raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points last month. Its rate-setting monetary policy committee meets next from 2 to 4 December, and economists say another 25 basis point rise in December now looks almost certain.

“With headline inflation yet to peak, compounded by an unfavourable base effect, the central bank’s quarterly projection is likely to be revised higher,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank. SBI Research also expects a 25 basis point rise in December, followed by no change in February because of the Union Budget.

The October data matters beyond India. Food prices are rising in many countries, and central banks everywhere are watching inflation closely. For a closer look at how price rises are shaping policy in the United States, read US CPI Rises 0.4% in October, December Fed Hike Likely.

Sources: Deccan Herald; News Today; The Hindu BusinessLine.