Britain should be prepared for an AI-powered cyberattack on its critical national infrastructure within the next two years. The warning comes from the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), which says such an attack is highly likely by 2028.
What the NCSC warned
The warning is in the NCSC’s annual report, published on Tuesday. Its chief executive, Richard Horne, said criminals and states are increasingly using artificial intelligence in their cyber activity. He said AI-powered malware could be used for ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure. He warned that weak points that have been tolerated for far too long could soon be found and exploited at a scale that was once unimaginable. He also said the coming months face a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in cyber incidents. Horne said far too many organisations and supply chains have got away with doing tech on the cheap for decades, leaving them vulnerable. Malicious cyber activity costs UK organisations almost $20 billion every year, the NCSC said.
China, Russia and Iran named
The report names China as the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge facing the UK. Horne said China highly likely has the intent and is best positioned to use AI against the UK’s critical infrastructure and other strategic targets. He said Russia is making sustained attempts to penetrate UK military networks, while Iran is carrying out malicious cyber operations globally, including against the UK and individuals seen as a threat. Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have all denied similar accusations of hostile cyber actions in the past.
Why supermarkets were a warning sign
Horne pointed to the recent cyberattacks on refrigeration systems in French supermarkets. He said they showed how easily hostile actors could exploit civilian infrastructure. Last week, governments and corporations also rushed out urgent security updates after the AI-assisted discovery of vulnerabilities in a programming language vital to 70% of websites globally. In 2025, the carmaker Jaguar Land Rover suffered more than $260 million in direct losses after a cyberattack, which also hit suppliers and dented the UK economy.
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What counts as critical infrastructure
Horne said technology underpins the automation of physical processes that are vital to modern life. That includes electricity switching, sluice gates in water facilities, dam operations, manufacturing lines, and heating and refrigeration controls. The NCSC is part of GCHQ, Britain’s signals intelligence agency. Its report says both Russia and China will routinely use AI to achieve their geopolitical goals.
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